Event odds
A running board of event odds — elections, policy, the economy and world events — showing the leading outcome, the implied chance and how much money is on it, pulled from Polymarket. Implied probability is a price, not a forecast. When you want a book to bet with, Dexsport is the wallet-only one this desk points to.
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Leading outcome, implied chance and volume on politics, economy and world-event markets, pulled live from Polymarket.
live from Polymarket · 06 Oct 2026 20:03 UTC
| Market | Leading | Implied chance | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18% | $1.3B | 2028-11-08 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | JD Vance | 21% | $709.1M | 2029-01-21 |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance | 51% | $708.0M | 2028-11-08 |
| Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | Abiy Ahmed | 96% | $286.1M | 2029-01-01 |
| Brazil Presidential Election | Flávio Bolsonaro | 55% | $155.0M | 2026-10-04 |
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen | 38% | $137.7M | 2027-04-18 |
| Netanyahu out by...? | Netanyahu out by end of 2026 | 46% | $124.4M | 2027-01-01 |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? | Nicolás Maduro | 60% | $97.6M | 2027-01-01 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian contr | 6% | $74.3M | 2027-01-01 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? | the US confirm that aliens exist before 20 | 4% | $70.3M | 2027-01-01 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 14% | $68.8M | 2027-01-01 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 97% | $53.4M | 2027-01-01 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 4% | $42.8M | 2027-01-01 |
| California Governor Election Winner | Xavier Becerra | 95% | $41.3M | 2026-11-04 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei | 85% | $39.6M | 2026-12-31 |
Implied chance is the current market price on Polymarket — what traders are paying for an outcome, not a prediction and not advice. Prices move and markets can be wrong; resolution rules matter more than the headline number. Do your own research and gamble responsibly. 18+.
Sponsored · our one pick
Event odds show what a crowd is paying on a question; a sportsbook is where you take a fixed-odds bet. When readers ask where to actually bet, we point to Dexsport — the sponsor of this desk and the clearest wallet-only, self-custodial, no-KYC example around.
It is one pick, disclosed as sponsored. The facts on the right are from Dexsport’s own published terms, checked on the date shown. The odds above are data, separate from this recommendation.
Dexsport sponsors this desk and is the cleanest live example of the wallet-first, self-custodial model behind on-chain betting.
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Each market trades as a share that settles at 1 if the outcome happens and 0 if it does not, so the price reads as a probability: an outcome at 0.30 is the market paying about 30%. That is the ‘implied chance’ column — a price, not a promise.
Volume is how much money has moved through a market. A thin market can show a confident price on very little conviction, so weigh price against volume rather than reading the percentage on its own.
A market price is what traders are willing to pay right now, shaped by money and mood. It can lead events, lag them, or be flatly wrong — markets have badly mispriced outcomes before and will again.
Resolution rules matter more than the headline number: how and when a market settles decides what the price even means. Read those rules before you trust an odds line, and treat it as one input among many.
Dutch gambling is licensed through the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA). The offshore crypto books referenced here are not KSA-licensed, and nothing on this page is legal or financial advice — check your own situation before you act.
If you choose to bet, treat an offshore book like any offshore service: local consumer protections do not apply, so set your own limits and never stake money you cannot afford to lose.
From Polymarket, a public prediction-market source the wider Dexsport network uses. The board shows when it was last fetched; Polymarket’s public data is keyless.
It is the current market price for the leading outcome, read as a probability — an outcome priced at 0.30 implies about 30%. It is a price, not a forecast.
Politics, elections, the economy and world events — the non-sports, non-crypto side of the prediction-market world. Crypto and sports markets live on our sister desk.
No. The numbers describe what a market is paying now. They are not a prediction and not betting, trading or investment advice. Markets move and can be wrong.
This is information, not advice. Offshore crypto books are not KSA-licensed. If you bet, local protections do not apply — set your own limits.
When you want a book, Dexsport is our sponsored #1 pick — wallet-only sign-up, self-custody and instant on-chain payouts.
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